I’ve never taken the time to define nor think about the role of ‘luck’ in life and how much it has played in my own life…until now. In this blog post, I’m going to define luck, decompose it into its key elements and discuss the different levels of luck.
First, let’s define luck.
What is luck?
According to Google dictionary, luck is ‘success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one’s own actions.’
I agree with the above definition but it describes luck at its most basic level and implies that we have little control over it.
The idea of luck is actually more complex and has many levels.
To me, it’s a word that describes the process of and getting what you want, or ‘getting lucky’. Which is a function of many factors but, in my opinion, mainly skill, effort and perseverance.
If I were to summarise this blog post in one sentence it would be: the harder and smarter we work in our endeavours, the luckier we would often get.
The elements of ‘luck’
I see luck as a latent concept, meaning it’s subjective, difficult to measure and cannot be directly controlled.
We can, however, increase the likelihood of getting lucky through influencing the key elements of luck, which, in my opinion, are:
- Randomness
- Iteration
- Skill
- Direction
The mentioned factors have different levels of influence at different levels of luck which we will discuss next.
The different levels of luck
As I’ve said, luck has many layers and personally, I think there are four levels:
- Pure luck
- Bold luck
- Discovery luck
- Structured luck
Pure luck
As the name implies, pure luck is mainly driven by randomness and as such is the most basic level of luck.
The dominant force, randomness, is king here. Why? Because there is almost zero level of Order in place. There is no end goal, no direction and no structure in place, of course.
Therefore, the only way of getting what you want is through being at the right place at the right time, the probability of which we know is slim.
On the positive side, however, pure luck has the highest risk-to-reward ratio because it involves minimal effort. You don’t need be proactive; you just need to be at the right place at the right time.
Bold luck
As the name suggests, bold luck requires boldness and risk taking. What are we risking? Time and effort.
To get what we want at this level, we need to be proactive. We need to always show up and take some form of action.
Iteration and the law of large numbers play a critical role here. This basically says that we need to repeat something over and over until something happens.
For example, to get your dream job through this type of luck, you would apply to hundreds of jobs without evaluation. You would apply, turn up, make the same mistakes over and over, and hope someone takes you on.
The difference from pure luck is the knowledge that something could eventually happen, that we could be at the right place at the right time, if we are always take action. Which is an improvement but no better than pure luck as you don’t how and why things work.
Discovery luck
The third level, discovery luck, is different from the above levels in that over time you become more aware and develop certain skills. You learn how to get a feel for the dynamics of your domain and the different factors at play.
By showing up consistently, subconsciously you develop the ability to identify opportunities although not necessarily how to convert them to a high degree of certainty. You learn this powerful skill through trial and error, through which you also pick random patterns that work.
In the business world, for example, this could mean getting better at identifying gaps in markets.
The bold entrepreneur keeps firing, trying different business ideas until he comes across something that works. Whereas the entrepreneur at this level would still keep firing but with some level of analysis and evaluation, identifying and proceeding with ideas with a high chance of success.
This level is different from bold luck because you build the observation skills needed to identify opportunities with a higher probability of succeeding.
Which brings us to the final and ultimate level of luck.
Structured luck
Structured luck is the ultimate level of luck and is the best way to predictably and consistently get lucky.
If you control the key elements of luck as much as you can, then you have a much better chance of success. That’s because a good grasp of these elements is the engine that drives good luck.
The best way to do this is by having an end goal and a structured plan of action, which are the foundation of success. The key is to keep your goal in mind and follow your plan, no matter what situation you find yourself against.
Another thing people at this level do is analysis and evaluation. You have to analyse and evaluate after every trial or event. Why? Because this will avoid you making the same mistakes and therefore accelerate your progress.
Direction, structure and consistent evaluation are critical at this level. They will help you develop an intuition for your domain and skills needed to turn opportunities into results. If maintained over a period of time, you will become clinical and reap the rewards for your discipline.
Conclusion
History will be kind to me for I intend to write it.
Winston Churchill
Luck can happen to you or you can make it happen. The choice is yours.
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